September 11, 2025:  We examine U.S. equity multiples across various measures which are currently near the record levels that were last seen 25 years ago during the tech bubble. To achieve historic average returns going forward, we would need to see fundamental growth accelerate well beyond prior peaks. This suggests that growth needs to “Go to Eleven”, to borrow from the 1984 movie This is Spinal Tap, in order for investors to have a chance at achieving average historic equity returns. VIEW/DOWNLOAD

June 11, 2025: Over the long term, smaller stocks have significantly outperformed the largest ones, but have done so with significant cyclicality. Only 15 years ago, larger stocks had underperformed sharply and were strongly favored on valuation before subsequently outperforming substantially.  Conditions are reversed today with underperformance of smaller stocks approaching levels in relative performance, valuation, and duration that have given way to powerful reversals and reversions to the mean in the past. VIEW/DOWNLOAD

December 19, 2024:  We update an asset class yield analysis first published in 2021.  Since that time, we have seen dramatic changes in the valuation of some assets, most notably U.S. equities. VIEW/DOWNLOAD

November 1, 2024:  Large cap stocks are extremely concentrated even beyond simple measures of the weight of the largest few stocks. Historically, levels of concentration to this degree have subsequently seen strong outperformance among smaller stocks within the large cap universe. Equal weighted indexes also subsequently do well, but equal weight indexes themselves can suffer from lower quality. For longer term investors, this analysis supports our view that there is great opportunity to invest in the higher quality parts of the market with a bias away from the largest and most expensive stocks. VIEW/DOWNLOAD